How to Pick a Grand National Winner

It’s not long now… and the Grand National will be with us soon – one of the most unpredictable and exciting horse races, not just in the UK, but in the world. Every year there’s a huge field of runners, a tough course, and tricky fences – which means that trying to pick the winner is no easy task.

So, how do you do it? Well, by looking at things like form, stamina, jumping ability, and past performances, you can at least give yourself a reasonably decent chance of picking a strong contender.

So, with that being said, let’s look at some of the things you should think about when trying to pick a Grand National winner.

Study the Form Guide

Checking out a horse’s form is a massive factor when trying to assess whether it has a fighting chance in the race. Look to see how it’s performed in recent races – particularly over long distances and in similar race conditions. Consistency is key – and horses that usually finish in the top three are a lot more likely to perform well in the Grand National.

Think About the Distance and Stamina

The Grand National is run over a very tough 4 miles and 2½ furlongs, so horses need stamina in abundance. Horses that do well in races of at least three miles or longer have a better chance of coping with all the demands of the race. So, look for a horse that has previously won or at least placed in long-distance races.

Look at Jumping Ability

The race has no less than 30 fences to be cleared, including famously difficult obstacles like Becher’s Brook and The Chair. So a horse’s jumping ability is vital. Check out the horse’s past performances in other races that have difficult fences – and also see whether it has a history of both safe and consistent jumping. Horses that have fallen in previous races could have trouble getting round the Grand National course.

Trainer and Jockey

Some trainers and jockeys have a good track record in the Grand National. If you go for horses trained by trainers like Gordon Elliott, Willie Mullins, and Henry de Bromhead, you’ll know that they know what the race entails. Also, look to see if it’s being ridden by an experienced jockey who has competed in the Grand National before, as they’ll know how to tackle the course.

Weight and Handicap

The Grand National is a handicap race, which means that horses carry different weights based on how they’ve done in the past. Usually, horses that carry between 10st and 11st 5lb get the best results. Too much weight can tire a horse out over the long distance – and too little could show that it is currently an unproven horse..

Track and Ground Conditions

Weather and track conditions can have a huge impact on the outcome of the race. Some horses like soft ground, while others prefer firmer conditions. So, make sure you check the weather forecast and the state of the track – and look for horses that usually do well in those conditions.

Grand National Experience

Horses that have run in the Grand National before often do better than those who haven’t. Having some experience of the tough Aintree fences can be quite a big advantage, as they’ll be more prepared for the challenge. If they’ve previously finished in the top five, even better.

Trends and Stats

You should also look at past trends, such as:

• Most winners are aged between 8 and 11 years old.
• Horses that have odds shorter than 40/1 usually have a better chance of winning.
• Irish-trained horses have done particularly well recently.
• Lots of the past winners had won a race in the same season before going on to win the Grand National.

Betting Odds

Keeping an eye on the Grand National odds and market movements can be a good indicator of which horses are getting the most interest from bettors and insiders. If there’s a rush of late money coming in for a horse, it could be a sign of confidence from connections. However, remember, favourites don’t always win – and outsiders have won the Grand National several times.

However, you can do all the research in the world… but the Grand National is notoriously unpredictable. Do your best – and just hope you have a sprinkle of luck on your side as well!